Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming ABA League game, scheduled for May 12 at 1:00PM ET: If the Cedevita Olimpija win, the market will resolve to "Cedevita Olimpija". If the KK Crvena Zvezda win, the market will resolve to "KK Crvena Zvezda". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cedevita Olimpija vs. KK Crvena Zvezda | 49% YES | 52% NO |
The ABA League matchup between Cedevita Olimpija and KK Crvena Zvezda is scheduled for 12 May at 1:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for an Olimpija victory, suggesting near-parity between the two sides. This even split indicates substantial uncertainty amongst traders regarding the outcome, with neither club commanding decisive backing at present pricing.
Historically, these Slovenian and Serbian clubs have produced competitive encounters within the Adriatic League framework. Crvena Zvezda enters as the more established powerhouse with greater domestic resources and recent championship pedigree, whilst Olimpija represents the stronger regional challenger. The 49-51 probability split reflects this nuanced competitive positioning rather than a clear favourite-underdog dynamic. Recent seasons have seen both clubs reach playoff stages, with results often determined by fixture-specific factors including roster availability and home-court advantage rather than fundamental capability gaps.
Traders should monitor squad availability in the fortnight preceding the match, particularly injury reports affecting key contributors on either side. Crvena Zvezda's roster depth typically provides injury resilience, whereas Olimpija's competitiveness often hinges on maintaining core player fitness. Fixture scheduling within the broader ABA League calendar may also influence team preparation and fatigue levels. The settlement window extends to 19 May, providing five trading days post-match for any postponement scenarios to resolve, though cancellation without rescheduling would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.aba-liga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Cedevita Olimpija vs. KK Crvena Zvezda" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $973 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 49%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.aba-liga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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