Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player is announced as a member of the listed nation’s official squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. Only full squad announcements will be considered. Prior cut lists or previous squad lists other than the officially announced squad lists will not be considered. If a player is officially announced as part of the squad but is replaced before the nation’s first game for any reason, the corresponding market will still resolve “Yes”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| José Sá | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Matheus Nunes | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| João Cancelo | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Gonçalo Inácio | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| António Silva | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Rúben Neves | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Mateus Fernandes | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Vitinha | 85% YES | 15% NO |
Portugal will announce its official 23-player squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup by June 1st, 2026. The current market pricing reflects a 51% implied probability that a specific player will be included in that squad announcement. This probability is being formed through the order book on Polymarket, where traders are weighing the likelihood of squad selection against the alternative outcome of non-inclusion.
Historical precedent suggests that squad selection probabilities at this level typically reflect genuine uncertainty about fringe players or those competing for limited spots. Portugal's squad depth in attacking positions has historically created competitive selection battles, particularly for wide players and backup strikers. The 51% probability indicates the market views this player as marginally more likely than not to make the cut, positioning them as a borderline selection candidate rather than a lock or unlikely prospect. Comparable Portuguese squad announcements have shown that players on the periphery of the national team setup face genuine competition, with form, injury status, and managerial preference all influencing final decisions.
Key catalysts for traders include Portugal's qualifying campaign performance through 2025, which will establish form and momentum heading into the tournament. Managerial changes or shifts in tactical approach could alter squad composition significantly. Club-level performance during the 2025–26 season will be critical, as injuries or loss of form at club level frequently influence international selection. Any official squad announcements or manager statements regarding player availability between now and June 2026 will provide direct signals about selection likelihood.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Portugal Squad" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$264 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $200 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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