Trade: KBL: Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the KBL. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of KBL per the rules of KBL (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5
- Total Volume
- $5K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $46
Market outcomes
| Suwon KT Sonicboom | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Anyang KGC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Korea Gas Corporation (Daegu) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Seoul Samsung Thunders | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wonju DB Promy | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Team A | — | |
| Goyang Sono Skygunners | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Market context
The Korean Basketball League (KBL) championship will be determined through the 2025–26 season, with the final series typically concluding in May. The market currently reflects 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating no active bids supporting this outcome at any price level. This zero probability often emerges when a specific team name has been listed but lacks sufficient trading interest or when market participants assess the team's championship prospects as negligible relative to competitors.
Historical KBL championship markets show that implied probabilities correlate with pre-season roster strength, recent playoff performance, and domestic league standings. Teams with championship histories—such as SK Knights, Ulsan Hyundai Mobis Phoebus, and Seoul Samsung Thunders—typically command higher probabilities early in the season. The 0% reading here suggests either a newly promoted team, a squad with minimal recent success, or insufficient liquidity on this particular contract. Comparable markets on Polymarket demonstrate that even long-shot teams occasionally see probability shifts once regular-season performance data emerges.
Traders should monitor the KBL regular season schedule (running through April 2026) and playoff bracket announcements. Team roster changes, injury reports, and mid-season trades will influence championship viability. The settlement deadline of 31 May 2026 allows for the full playoff tournament to conclude. Any significant roster acquisitions or unexpected playoff runs could trigger order book activity, though the current zero probability suggests the listed team faces structural disadvantages relative to established contenders.
Wikipedia Context
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KBLAKBLA is a broadcast radio station in the United States. Licensed to Santa Monica, California, KBLA serves the Greater Los Angeles area. The station is owned by Multicultural Broadcasting, through licensee Multicultural Radio Broadcasting Licensee, LLC, and operated by pending owner Tavis Smiley with an urban/progressive talk format.
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KBLN-TV
KBLN-TV is a religious independent television station licensed to Grants Pass, Oregon, United States, serving the Medford area. Owned by Better Life Television, the station maintains studios on Northeast 9th Street in Grants Pass and a transmitter on Mount Bluey.
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KBL All-Star Game
The KBL All-Star Game was an annual basketball event in South Korea, organised by the Korean Basketball League. It was established in 1998 as the All-Star Game of the KBL. The KBL All-Star Game is held in mid-January every year, usually in Seoul, except for a few occasions.
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KBLRKBLR is a television station licensed to Paradise, Nevada, United States, broadcasting the Spanish language Telemundo network to the Las Vegas area. Owned and operated by NBCUniversal's Telemundo Station Group, KBLR maintains studios on Polaris Avenue in Las Vegas, and a transmitter on Black Mountain near Henderson.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "KBL: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$5K in lifetime turnover and $5 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "KBL: Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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