Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the Greek Basketball League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Greek Basketball League per the rules of Greek Basketball League (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Aris Thessaloniki | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Iraklis Thessaloniki | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Team A | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Mykonos BC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| AEK Athens | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Kolossos Rhodes | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Maroussi BC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Greek Basketball League (Basket League) concludes its 2025–26 season in June 2026, with the championship final determining the league winner. The current order book on Polymarket prices the listed team at 37% implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment of their likelihood to claim the title ahead of rivals including Olympiacos, Panathinaikos, and AEK Athens—the traditional powerhouses that have dominated the competition over the past decade.
Historical context shows that the same three clubs have won every championship since 2014–15, with Olympiacos holding seven titles in that span. The 37% probability suggests the market views the listed team as a genuine contender but not the outright favourite; this positioning is consistent with how mid-tier Greek clubs have been priced in previous seasons when they've mounted genuine playoff runs. Teams outside the traditional big three have occasionally reached finals but rarely converted to titles, which anchors the baseline scepticism reflected in current pricing.
Key catalysts for movement include the playoff bracket draw (typically finalised in April), injury announcements to key roster players, and mid-season trades before the February transfer window closes. The regular season concludes in March, after which the eight-team playoff format determines the champion by early June. Recent reporting from Greek sports outlets has highlighted roster stability concerns for several contenders, though specific squad changes for the listed team will be material to reassessment of win probability as the season progresses toward the settlement deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Greek Basketball League: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $290 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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