Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
The South Korean National Assembly could formally impeach Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party leader and 2022 presidential candidate, before the end of 2026. Impeachment requires a two-thirds supermajority vote in the 300-seat legislature. Lee currently faces multiple legal challenges, including convictions on charges related to campaign finance violations and abuse of power, though these remain subject to appeal. The market is pricing impeachment as a low-probability event at 9% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting the substantial political and procedural barriers involved.
South Korea's recent impeachment history provides context for assessing this probability. President Park Geun-hye was impeached in December 2016 following the Choi Soon-sil scandal, with the Constitutional Court upholding the decision in March 2017. However, impeaching a major opposition figure rather than a sitting president presents different political dynamics. The ruling party would need to secure supermajority support, which typically requires cross-party cooperation. Lee's position as opposition leader rather than sitting president means impeachment would be a more extraordinary political move, historically less common than removing an incumbent executive.
Traders should monitor developments in Lee's ongoing legal cases, particularly Constitutional Court rulings on his convictions, and any shifts in National Assembly composition. The December 2026 parliamentary elections could alter the political calculus significantly. Additionally, any major political crisis or scandal involving Lee could accelerate impeachment discussions, though the high procedural threshold means sustained political will across party lines would be necessary for passage before the settlement deadline.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for south korea contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $859 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 10%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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