Trade: Uruguay vs. Spain - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Uruguay and Spain, scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Uruguay vs. Spain match originally scheduled for June 26, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-1 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-3 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-1 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 3-2 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
Uruguay and Spain will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 26 June at 8:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed settles as "Any Other Score." The current 7% implied probability reflects Polymarket's order book pricing for a specific scoreline, suggesting traders view this particular result as unlikely relative to the broader distribution of possible outcomes.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance for exact-score predictions in World Cup group matches between established sides. Uruguay and Spain last met competitively in the 2010 World Cup semi-final, which Spain won 3–1, though group-stage dynamics differ substantially from knockout football. Group matches typically feature lower-scoring outcomes than knockout stages, with 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 results accounting for a significant proportion of results. Spain's recent tournament performances have emphasised controlled possession and defensive solidity, whilst Uruguay remains a compact, counter-attacking unit. The specificity required to predict an exact scoreline means even moderately likely results carry single-digit probabilities when distributed across all possibilities.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding key attacking players for both nations. Spain's midfield depth and Uruguay's reliance on experienced forwards will influence expected goal-scoring patterns. Fixture scheduling may also affect team selection and intensity; group-stage positioning and remaining fixtures will become clearer once the full tournament draw is confirmed, potentially shifting expectations around how conservatively each side approaches the match.
Wikipedia Context
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Spain–Uruguay relationsSpain and Uruguay have maintained current and historical relations. There is community of 67,000 Spanish nationals residing in Uruguay and 33,000 Uruguayan nationals residing in Spain. Both nations are members of the Association of Spanish Language Academies, Organization of Ibero-American States and the United Nations.
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Time in Uruguay
Uruguay is located at a longitude appropriate for a UTC−04:00 time zone offset, but it actually uses a UTC−03:00 offset. Uruguay used to observe daylight saving time (UTC−02:00) from October until March. On 30 June 2015, the Uruguayan government decided to abolish DST, establishing the UTC−03:00 time zone all year round. The term "UYT" is used in and out o
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Uruguay and the International Monetary Fund
Uruguay is a founding member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), having joined the organization at its inception. The South American nation has periodically engaged with the Fund through various credit arrangements, primarily utilizing standby agreements to reinforce its economic stability during times of regional financial turbulence.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Uruguay vs. Spain - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Uruguay vs. Spain - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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