Trade the outcome below — no house edge, instant USDC settlement on Polygon
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Korea Republic, scheduled for June 18, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 24%, making this a directional market with 18 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $1K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mexico | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Korea Republic | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| Draw | 28% YES | 73% NO |
Mexico and Korea Republic will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 18 June at 9:00 PM ET. This market settles on the halftime result—whether Mexico leads, the sides are level, or Korea Republic leads after 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Mexico halftime victory at 24 per cent implied probability, reflecting relatively modest confidence in an early Mexican advantage despite their status as hosts.
Historical World Cup halftime results show that home nations do enjoy marginal advantages in opening fixtures, though these rarely translate to dominant first-half performances. Mexico's record in group-stage openers has been mixed; they've secured halftime leads in roughly one-third of their World Cup group matches since 1994, whilst Korea Republic—a disciplined defensive side—has historically kept first halves tight, trailing at the interval in only 40 per cent of their World Cup appearances. The 24 per cent probability suggests the market is pricing in Korea Republic's defensive solidity and Mexico's tendency toward second-half intensity rather than early dominance.
Team news and squad availability will shape pre-match expectations through mid-June. Mexico's preparation schedule and any late injury concerns to key attacking players will influence how aggressively they press early. Korea Republic's tactical approach under their manager—whether they adopt a compact defensive shape or attempt early pressing—remains a critical variable. Weather conditions at the venue and any fixture congestion affecting either nation's group schedule could also affect first-half intensity levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 19 June 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Mexico vs. Korea Republic - Halftime Result", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($1K of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Mexico vs. Korea Republic - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Mexico vs. Korea Republic - Halftime Result", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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