Trade: Seeker FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Seeker's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Seeker (https://x.com/solanamobile) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- —
- Total Volume
- $1.4M
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $0
Market outcomes
| $200M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $1B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $600M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $800M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $100M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $400M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $50M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $150M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Seeker is a governance token associated with Solana Mobile, the mobile-focused blockchain initiative from the Solana ecosystem. The market tests whether the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of becoming publicly tradable. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the price on the most liquid exchange, with resolution occurring at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects significant uncertainty around launch timing, token mechanics, and initial market conditions.
Comparable token launches in the Solana ecosystem show highly variable outcomes. Marinade Finance launched with modest initial valuations before substantial appreciation, whilst other governance tokens have experienced sharp post-launch corrections. The absence of a confirmed launch date and limited public information on token distribution mechanics make historical precedent difficult to apply directly. Traders should note that governance tokens tied to specific ecosystem initiatives often see initial volatility driven by early adopter demand rather than fundamental valuation signals.
Key catalysts include any official announcement from Solana Mobile regarding launch timing and token specifications. The settlement window closes 1 January 2027, creating a defined timeframe for launch to occur. Traders monitoring this market should track Solana Mobile's social channels and ecosystem announcements for distribution details, initial exchange listings, and any changes to tokenomics that could materially affect opening valuations.
Wikipedia Context
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Seeker Lover Keeper
Seeker Lover Keeper was an Australian indie rock music supergroup formed by Sarah Blasko, Sally Seltmann and Holly Throsby in August 2010. The trio each have separate solo careers as singer-songwriters. The group's first album, which was self-titled, was released on 3 June 2011 through Dew Process/UMA.
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Seeker Lover Keeper (album)Seeker Lover Keeper is the self-titled first album released by the Australian all-female trio, Seeker Lover Keeper, composed of solo singer-songwriters Sarah Blasko, Holly Throsby and Sally Seltmann. It was released in Australia on 3 June 2011. On 12 June 2011, the album debuted at No. 3 on the ARIA Albums Chart.
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Seeker Aviation Australia
Seeker Aviation Australia Pty Limited is an intelligence, surveillance and observation (ISR) aircraft manufacturer that was previously based in Hervey Bay, Queensland, Australia.
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Character class (Dungeons & Dragons)A character class is a fundamental part of the identity and nature of characters in the Dungeons & Dragons role-playing game. A character's capabilities, strengths, and weaknesses are largely defined by their class; choosing a class is one of the first steps a player takes to create a Dungeons & Dragons player character. A character's class affects a charact
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Seeker FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.4M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for skr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Seeker FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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