Trade: Lowest temperature in London on May 14?

Market context

This market settles on the lowest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 14 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The resolution will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station and date, with the settlement window closing at noon UTC on the day itself. The outcome determines which temperature band—ranging from below 5°C through to above 20°C—contains the actual low for that twenty-four-hour period.

May temperatures in London typically range between 8°C and 16°C based on thirty-year climate normals, though daily lows frequently dip to 5–10°C during the month. Historical precedent shows that extreme cold (below 5°C) occurs in roughly 10–15% of May days at this location, whilst temperatures above 15°C for the daily low remain uncommon. The current 0% implied probability on the order book suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the lowest temperature falls outside the YES range entirely, though the specific range definition remains critical to interpreting this signal.

Traders monitoring this market should track the UK Met Office's medium-range forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of Arctic air incursions or high-pressure systems that could suppress overnight temperatures. Seasonal patterns favour mild conditions by mid-May, yet anomalous cold snaps do materialise periodically. The order book's current pricing reflects baseline climatological expectations rather than any specific weather system; meaningful movement would likely require forecasts indicating unusual cold patterns in the ten to fourteen days preceding settlement.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in London on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$369 in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rewards automation 200 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $369 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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