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Rewards 20 4pt5 50

Trade: Peru Election 2nd Round: Turnout?

Opened · Settles · 1 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the second round Peru presidential election, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles). This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the second-round Presidential (Presidencial) election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$51K
Total Volume
$37K
24h Volume
$1K
Open Interest
$3K
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

<70% 4% YES96% NO
70–75% 56% YES44% NO
75–80% 33% YES67% NO
80–85% 11% YES89% NO
>85% 0% YES100% NO

Market context

Peru will hold a presidential runoff election on 7 June 2026, with turnout measured as the percentage of eligible voters who cast ballots in the second round. The current order book on Polymarket implies just 4% probability that turnout will exceed 50%, suggesting traders expect a notably depressed second-round participation relative to historical norms. This low probability reflects scepticism about whether voters will return to polling stations for a runoff after already participating in the first round.

Peruvian presidential runoffs have historically drawn lower turnout than first rounds, though the magnitude varies considerably. The 2016 runoff between Kuczynski and Fujimori achieved approximately 57% turnout, whilst the 2021 runoff between Castillo and Fujimori saw roughly 59% participation. These precedents sit well above the 50% threshold this market tests, yet Peru's political environment has become increasingly fragmented and volatile since 2021, with institutional instability potentially dampening voter engagement.

Traders should monitor the composition of the first-round field and the ideological distance between runoff candidates, as polarisation typically drives participation upwards. The official electoral calendar and any major political developments between the first and second rounds—including candidate withdrawals, coalition formations, or institutional crises—will shape turnout expectations. Peru's mandatory voting system, with penalties for non-participation, provides a structural floor for turnout that distinguishes it from voluntary systems, though enforcement and compliance rates have shown variation in recent elections.

Wikipedia Context

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Peru Election 2nd Round: Turnout?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$37K in lifetime turnover and $51K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for rewards 20 4pt5 50 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Peru Election 2nd Round: Turnout?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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