Trade: FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $21K
- Total Volume
- $20K
- 24h Volume
- $420
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| Jared Moskowitz | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| Oliver Adams Larkin | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person A | — | |
| Person B | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person D | — | |
| Person E | — | |
Market context
Florida's 23rd congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 18 August 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 33% probability for the eventual winner, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the field composition and relative candidate strength at this early stage. This probability aggregates traders' assessments across multiple potential nominees, with no single candidate commanding consensus support.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic primary probabilities in open-seat or competitive districts typically remain diffuse until the field solidifies and candidates begin distinguishing themselves through fundraising and endorsements. FL-23 encompasses portions of Miami-Dade County and has shifted politically in recent cycles, making the primary outcome less predictable than in safely Democratic districts. Comparable 2024 Democratic primaries in swing-district seats saw late consolidation around establishment-backed candidates, though grassroots challengers occasionally disrupted expectations.
Key catalysts for traders include formal candidate announcements, which typically accelerate in early 2026; Federal Election Commission filings revealing fundraising disparities; and endorsements from state party leadership or sitting Democratic representatives. The Democratic National Committee's primary calendar and any local party guidance on preferred candidates could materially shift market pricing. The settlement window closes on 18 August 2026, providing a fixed endpoint for resolution based on official Democratic Party sources, with any nominee replacement before the general election leaving the primary resolution unchanged.
Wikipedia Context
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Flag of the Democratic Republic of the CongoThe national flag of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is a sky blue flag, adorned with a yellow star in the upper left canton and cut diagonally by a red stripe with a yellow fimbriation. It was adopted on 18 February 2006. A new constitution, ratified in December 2005 and which came into effect in February 2006, promoted a return to a flag similar to th
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Flag of Democratic KampucheaThe flag of Democratic Kampuchea was the national flag of Cambodia during the period of Khmer Rouge rule, when the country was known as Democratic Kampuchea. It was adopted on 5 January 1976, upon the implementation of a new national constitution by the Khmer Rouge. It ceased being the Cambodian national flag on 7 January 1979, when Vietnamese forces capture
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Flag of North KoreaThe national flag of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea consists of a wide horizontal red stripe bordered above and below by a thin white stripe and a broad blue stripe. The red stripe is charged near the hoist with a five-pointed red star inside a white disc. The design of the flag is defined in the North Korean constitution and regulations regarding
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Flag of VietnamThe national flag of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, previously presenting the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, was designed in 1940 and first used during a failed communist uprising against the French colonialists in Cochinchina that year. The red background symbolizes revolution and bloodshed. The golden star symbolizes the soul of the nation and the fiv
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$20K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for primaries contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $420 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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