Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Jerry Carl | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| James Dees | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Rhett Marques | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| Joshua McKee | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| John Mills | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| James Richardson | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Austin Sidwell | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
Alabama's 1st congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 19 May 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 25% probability for the eventual winner, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which candidate will secure the nomination in a district where Republican primary outcomes have historically been competitive. This probability formation suggests the market is pricing in multiple viable contenders rather than a consensus frontrunner.
AL-01 has experienced contested Republican primaries in recent cycles, with nomination outcomes often determined by candidate fundraising, endorsements from state party figures, and turnout patterns among the district's conservative base. The 2022 cycle saw significant primary competition before a nominee emerged, establishing precedent for multi-candidate fields in this district. Current probability levels suggest traders are assigning material weight to at least two or three plausible nominees, with no single candidate commanding dominant implied support.
Key catalysts for traders include candidate announcement timing through late 2025 and early 2026, fundraising disclosures that signal campaign viability, and any endorsements from Alabama Republican leadership or sitting congressional representatives. The Alabama Republican Party's formal primary schedule and any changes to filing deadlines will also shape the competitive landscape. Traders should monitor local Alabama political reporting and FEC filings for shifts in candidate positioning that might alter the current probability distribution across the field.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "AL-01 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$40K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for primaries contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $71 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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