Trade: StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of StandX's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If StandX (https://x.com/StandX_Official) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $104K
- Total Volume
- $1.4M
- 24h Volume
- $357
- Open Interest
- $160K
Market outcomes
| $5B | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| $7B | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| $10B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $1B | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| $3B | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| $800M | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| $2B | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| $400M | 40% YES | 60% NO |
Market context
StandX, a decentralised social network platform, is expected to launch a token by the end of 2026. The market is pricing the probability that the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of becoming publicly tradable. Current Polymarket order book depth shows traders assigning just 2% probability to this outcome, reflecting significant scepticism about achieving a high valuation immediately post-launch.
Token launches with exceptionally high FDVs on day one remain rare in crypto markets. Most projects experience initial trading volatility followed by price discovery over weeks or months. Comparable cases—including recent social network tokens and decentralised platforms—typically see FDV compression in the first trading day as early investors take profits and market makers establish spreads. The 2% implied probability aligns with historical patterns where ambitious valuation targets are rarely met within such a narrow timeframe, though outliers do occur when projects have substantial pre-launch momentum or exchange listing support.
Traders monitoring this market should track StandX's development milestones, exchange partnership announcements, and community growth metrics through its official channels. The December 31, 2026 deadline creates a hard resolution boundary; any delay past this date triggers automatic "No" resolution. Key variables include the exchange venues chosen for listing, initial liquidity provision, and whether the project achieves material user adoption or institutional backing before launch. Market conditions and broader crypto sentiment in late 2026 will also influence opening valuations significantly.
Wikipedia Context
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Standard VanguardThe Standard Vanguard is a car which was produced by the Standard Motor Company in Coventry, England, from 1947 until 1963.
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Standardville, UtahStandardville is a ghost town in Carbon County, Utah, United States. Standardville was established after coal was discovered in the area in 1912. The layout of the town was so well-planned, it became the "standard" for all mining towns to follow, which resulted in the town name of Standardville. In 1922, a group of striking miners killed a mine guard and wou
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Standard Vacuum Oil Company
The Standard Vacuum Oil Company was an American joint venture by Standard Oil of New Jersey and Socony-Vacuum Oil established in 1931 to make and market products in the Far East. Around World War I, the market in the Far East was too large to leave unattended, but still small.
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Standard deviationIn statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation of the values of a variable about its (arithmetic) average. A low standard deviation indicates that the values of a set tend to be close to their average, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range. Standard deviation may be abbrevia
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.4M in lifetime turnover and $104K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $357 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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