Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi is held in contempt of Congress by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pam Bondi will be considered to be held in contempt of Congress once a full chamber vote of the House of Representatives or Senate votes to approve a resolution (or other measure) holding her in contempt of Congress. A qualifying vote within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of any subsequent appeals or challenges it may face or whether or not the Department of Justice prosecutes the matter.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
Pam Bondi, nominated as Attorney General under the Trump administration, faces a theoretical risk of being held in contempt of Congress before 30 April 2026. Contempt of Congress requires a full chamber vote in either the House or Senate approving a formal resolution. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial procedural and political barriers to such an outcome, particularly given Republican control of both chambers during the relevant timeframe.
Historical contempt votes are rare and typically require either bipartisan support or unified opposition control of Congress. The most recent contempt citations—including those against Trump administration officials during 2019-2021—occurred when Democrats controlled the House. Bondi's confirmation as Attorney General would grant her significant executive authority, and contempt proceedings against sitting cabinet members face additional political friction. The absence of any current legislative momentum toward such action anchors the market's zero probability assessment.
Traders monitoring this market should track congressional oversight hearings, any subpoena compliance disputes, and shifts in Democratic legislative strategy should they regain House control. Bondi's confirmation hearing and subsequent testimony before Congress will establish initial baseline expectations for her engagement with legislative bodies. The settlement window extends through mid-2026, capturing potential political shifts following the 2024 election cycle, though the structural difficulty of securing a full chamber vote for contempt remains the dominant constraint on probability movement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $3 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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