Trade: Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Season 5 of The Witcher is expected to air on Netflix in late 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Witcher: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $830
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Geralt of Rivia | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Yennefer of Vengerberg | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Princess Cirilla | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Jaskier | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Vilgefortz | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Emhyr | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Milva | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Cahir | 30% YES | 71% NO |
Market context
Netflix's The Witcher Season 5 will conclude the live-action adaptation of Andrzej Sapkowski's fantasy novels. The season is scheduled for late 2026 release, with the settlement window closing 30 June 2027. Current order book pricing implies a 30% probability that a specified character will die during the season—either shown on screen or confirmed through dialogue, funeral scenes, or equivalent narrative confirmation. Deaths reversed through resurrection or revival after the initial death still count as qualifying deaths under market rules.
The 30% implied probability reflects uncertainty inherent in adapting source material with established character fates. The books contain numerous significant deaths, yet showrunner decisions frequently diverge from literary canon—Season 4 notably altered several character trajectories. Previous seasons have killed major characters including Yennefer (temporarily), Emhyr, and various supporting figures, establishing that the show does not shy from mortality. However, the final season typically reserves deaths for narrative climax rather than early episodes, and lead characters often survive to series conclusion.
Traders should monitor casting announcements and production updates through 2026, particularly any statements regarding character arcs or final season scope. Netflix's official release schedule and any preview materials released in autumn 2026 will provide concrete information on which characters feature prominently. Industry reporting on showrunner interviews may signal thematic direction—whether the finale emphasises tragic resolution or redemptive endings. The settlement window's extension to mid-2027 allows for post-broadcast confirmation of any ambiguous deaths requiring narrative clarification.
Wikipedia Context
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Die Wicherts von nebenanDie Wicherts von nebenan is a German television series that aired 1986–1991.
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Dick Witcher
Dick Vernon Witcher was an American professional football player who was a wide receiver in the National Football League (NFL). Witcher was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers in the eighth round of the 1966 NFL draft. At 6 ft 3 in (1.91 m), Witcher first played two years at Bakersfield College, then graduated from UCLA. Witcher played in eight NFL seasons fr
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Twittering MachineTwittering Machine is a 1922 watercolor with gouache, pen-and-ink, and oil transfer on paper by Swiss-German painter Paul Klee. Like other artworks by Klee, it blends biology and machinery, depicting a loosely sketched group of birds on a wire or branch connected to a hand-crank. Interpretations of the work vary widely: it has been perceived as a nightmarish
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De WicherDe Wicher is a drainage mill near the village of Kalenberg, Overijssel, Netherlands. It is a hollow post windmill of the type called spinnenkop by the Dutch. The mill is in working order and used to drain the reed beds during winter to improve accessibility for reed cutters.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $830 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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