Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| US fertility rate up in Q1 2026? | 20% YES | 80% NO |
The US general fertility rate stood at 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 in Q4 2025 according to CDC data. This market tests whether the rate will increase in Q1 2026, with settlement based on the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. The 20% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism about an uptick, suggesting traders expect either continued decline or flat movement from the Q4 baseline.
US fertility has trended downward since 2007, with only intermittent quarters showing gains. The rate fell to a historic low of 55.8 in 2022 before recovering modestly to 56.5 in 2023 and 53.3 by late 2025. Quarterly volatility exists but is typically modest—moves of more than one point are uncommon. The current 20% probability implies traders view a reversal from the recent downward trajectory as unlikely within a single quarter, consistent with structural headwinds including delayed childbearing, economic uncertainty and contraceptive access.
The CDC typically releases quarterly fertility estimates with a lag of several months; Q1 2026 data should arrive by mid-2026, well before the December 2026 settlement deadline. Economic conditions in early 2026, employment figures and consumer confidence may influence fertility decisions, though these effects materialise with demographic lag. No major policy announcements or legislative changes affecting fertility are currently scheduled. Traders should monitor CDC release schedules and any revisions to prior quarters, which occasionally shift baseline comparisons.
In biology, infertility is the inability of a male and female organism to reproduce. It is usually not the natural state of a healthy organism that has reached sexual maturity, so children who have not undergone puberty, which is the body's start of reproductive capacity, are excluded. It is also a normal state in women after menopause.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$62 in lifetime turnover and $30 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 20%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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