Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if by May 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) will not be released by May 26, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by May 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this will qualify as a postponement. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| GTA 6 launch postponed? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Grand Theft Auto VI remains one of the most anticipated video game releases in the industry. Rockstar Games confirmed the title in December 2023 and has provided a release window of autumn 2025 for the game's launch. The current market pricing at 100% YES implies traders believe a postponement announcement is virtually certain by late May 2026—roughly eight months after the stated release window closes. This extreme probability reflects either high conviction in a delay or potential mispricing given the settlement criteria's specificity around US availability and official announcements.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison, as major Rockstar releases have generally adhered to announced timelines. GTA V launched in September 2013 as scheduled, though development cycles for open-world titles routinely extend beyond initial targets. The gaming industry has seen high-profile delays from studios including Cyberpunk 2077 (CD Projekt Red, 2020) and Starfield (Bethesda, 2023), both of which faced postponements announced months before their original windows. However, Rockstar's track record and the specificity of an autumn 2025 window—rather than a precise date—provides some buffer against triggering this market's resolution criteria.
Traders should monitor official announcements from Take-Two Interactive's quarterly earnings calls and press releases for any revision to the autumn 2025 timeline. Development updates, technical challenges, or competitive market shifts could prompt an announcement before May 2026. The market's current pricing suggests traders are heavily weighting the possibility of delay, though the settlement window extends well beyond the stated release period, creating ambiguity around what constitutes a meaningful postponement versus standard industry practice.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "GTA 6 launch postponed?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$83K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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