Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill erecting a qualifying moratorium that prohibits or suspends approvals for new AI data center construction or major expansions anywhere in the United States is passed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying moratorium go into effect against the construction of any facility described in the legal text as an AI data center, AI compute facility, AI training/inference data center, or similar. Any moratorium that applies to all “data centers” will also qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? | 93% YES | 7% NO |
A federal law restricting or suspending approvals for new artificial intelligence data centre construction in the United States would need to pass both chambers of Congress and receive presidential signature by 31 December 2026. The market's 91% implied probability reflects substantial conviction amongst traders that such legislation will become law within the next two years, a notably high confidence level for a specific legislative outcome with a defined timeframe.
Comparable precedent exists in state-level moratoriums and construction restrictions, though federal data centre legislation remains nascent. California's 2023 power grid strain discussions prompted localised scrutiny of energy-intensive facilities, whilst various states have explored semiconductor manufacturing incentives that implicitly shape data centre siting. However, a comprehensive federal moratorium represents uncharted territory; no equivalent blanket prohibition on a major infrastructure category has recently passed Congress. The 91% probability suggests traders anticipate either bipartisan concern over energy consumption and grid capacity, or alignment around national security and supply chain arguments that could overcome typical legislative gridlock.
Key catalysts include congressional committee hearings on data centre expansion and energy demands, which have accelerated since mid-2024. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's statements on grid reliability will carry weight, as will any major power outages attributed to data centre load. Presidential positioning matters substantially given veto power; current administration rhetoric on technology regulation and energy policy will signal legislative viability. Traders should monitor state-level actions—if multiple states implement restrictions, federal momentum could accelerate. Conversely, industry lobbying and economic growth arguments favouring data centre investment could dampen legislative appetite before year-end 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$50K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $717 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 93%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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