Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Larry Ellison | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Person J | — | |
| Person L | — | |
| Person N | — | |
| Person P | — | |
| Person Q | — | |
| Person X | — | |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 24% YES | 77% NO |
The market resolves based on who ranks as the second-wealthiest person globally according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on 31 December 2026. Currently, the order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 8% implied probability, reflecting significant uncertainty about wealth rankings nearly two years forward. The Bloomberg index updates continuously based on real-time asset valuations, making billionaire rankings volatile across short timeframes. The resolution mechanism includes a fallback to Forbes' Real-Time Billionaires List if Bloomberg data proves unavailable by the deadline.
Historical precedent suggests the second-richest position shifts considerably during multi-year windows. Between 2020 and 2024, the number two spot cycled through several names as technology stocks and currency fluctuations reshaped fortunes. Bernard Arnault, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos have all occupied the second position during this period, with ranking changes often driven by single-day equity movements rather than fundamental business changes. The 2% probability differential between top contenders typically reflects market volatility rather than structural wealth gaps.
Traders should monitor technology sector performance, particularly Tesla and Amazon share prices, alongside luxury goods valuations and currency movements against the dollar. Major M&A activity, regulatory actions affecting billionaire-controlled companies, and macroeconomic shifts affecting asset classes will influence rankings. The settlement window extends through 31 December 2026, providing ample time for wealth positions to shift materially. Recent volatility in mega-cap technology stocks suggests the current 8% probability may reflect genuine uncertainty rather than consensus conviction around any particular individual.
The Hilal-e-Jurat is the second-highest military award of Pakistan out of a total of four gallantry awards that were created in 1957. In order of rank it comes after the Nishan-e-Haider coming before the Sitara-e-Jurat.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2nd richest person on December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$41K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: