Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled May 8. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled May 8 by May 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Babydoll - Dominic Fike | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Billie Jean - Michael Jackson | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| DAISIES - Justin Bieber | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Song B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Song D | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Song F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Spotify's global charts update each Friday, reflecting the previous week's streaming data. The market resolves to whichever track ranks as the most-streamed song globally for the week ending Thursday, 8 May 2026. Settlement depends on Spotify publishing its official weekly top song via open.spotify.com/charts by 23:59 ET on 9 May 2026; absent that disclosure, the market defaults to "Other".
The 0% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which track will dominate streaming in May 2026—a timeframe where no major releases have yet been announced. Historical Spotify charts show dominance typically concentrates among recent releases from established artists, with occasional longevity from prior hits. Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Bad Bunny have held top positions frequently, though chart leadership shifts weekly based on new drops and promotional campaigns. The absence of scheduled releases visible today explains why traders assign negligible probability to any specific song.
Traders monitoring this market should track music industry release calendars and artist announcements through April and early May 2026. Major label drops—particularly surprise releases or coordinated campaigns—can rapidly shift streaming patterns. Chart momentum often builds around Friday releases, meaning announcements in the final week before the settlement window closes will prove most consequential. Spotify's own promotional playlisting decisions, whilst not formally disclosed, correlate with chart performance and merit observation through the platform's featured editorial selections.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "#1 song on Spotify this week? (May 8)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: