Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday) is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $131 | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| $132 | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| $133 | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| $134 | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| $135 | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| $136 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $137 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| $138 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
Palantir Technologies' share price will be assessed on the final trading day of the week commencing 11 May 2026 to determine whether it closes above a specified threshold. The settlement window closes on 15 May at 20:00 UTC, capturing the standard Friday close for US equities. Current pricing on Polymarket's order book reflects a 71% implied probability of affirmative resolution, suggesting market participants view an upside close as more likely than not across the five-trading-day window.
Palantir's historical volatility and institutional positioning provide context for interpreting this probability. The stock has demonstrated significant intraweek swings tied to government contract announcements, earnings surprises, and broader defence-sector sentiment. Comparable single-week price-target markets on defence contractors typically show 65–75% probabilities for modest upside moves, reflecting the balance between momentum traders and profit-taking at resistance levels. PLTR's recent trading patterns indicate sensitivity to quarterly guidance revisions and geopolitical developments affecting government spending priorities.
Traders monitoring this week should track any announcements regarding federal contracts, quarterly earnings updates, or macroeconomic data affecting defence budgets. Palantir's exposure to both US government procurement and commercial AI applications creates dual catalysts; statements from either segment can shift positioning substantially within a five-day window. Market liquidity and order-book depth on Polymarket will determine whether the 71% probability tightens or widens as the settlement date approaches, particularly if material news emerges mid-week.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is an American publicly traded company that develops data integration and analytics platforms. Headquartered in Miami, Florida, it was founded in 2003 by Peter Thiel, Stephen Cohen, Joe Lonsdale, Alex Karp, and Nathan Gettings.
The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power is an American fantasy television series developed by J. D. Payne and Patrick McKay for the streaming service Amazon Prime Video. It is based on J. R. R. Tolkien's history of Middle-earth, primarily material from the appendices of the novel The Lord of the Rings (1954–55). The series is set thousands of years be
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 11 above___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $83K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pltr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: