Trade: Will gas hit __ by end of May?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $35K
- Total Volume
- $135K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $35K
Market outcomes
| ↑ $5.00 | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| ↑ $4.60 | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| ↑ $4.45 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $4.35 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ $4.20 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| ↓ $4.00 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| ↓ $3.50 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ↑ $4.70 | 65% YES | 36% NO |
Market context
US regular petrol prices must reach a specified threshold at some point between now and 31 May 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The AAA's daily national average serves as the settlement source, with only the first two decimal places considered for resolution. The current orderbook on Polymarket implies a 29% probability of this occurring, suggesting traders assess the threshold as moderately unlikely to be breached within the settlement window.
Historical context shows US regular petrol prices have exhibited considerable volatility around seasonal patterns and geopolitical shocks. The 2022 spike to $5.016 per gallon in June demonstrated how quickly prices can move upward given supply disruptions or demand surges. Conversely, prices have spent extended periods below $3.00 during periods of weak global demand or elevated production. The current 29% probability reflects an assessment that the specified price level sits above the median expected range for the next seventeen months, though not so extreme as to be implausible given historical precedent.
Traders should monitor crude oil futures, particularly WTI and Brent contracts, alongside OPEC production decisions and US inventory data released weekly by the Energy Information Administration. Geopolitical developments affecting Middle Eastern supply remain a material catalyst, as do US refinery maintenance schedules and seasonal demand shifts. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory will influence broader energy demand, whilst any significant recession could suppress petrol prices downward. Near-term, winter demand patterns through early 2026 will establish baseline price ranges against which spring and early-summer movements can be assessed.
Wikipedia Context
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Gashi (tribe)Gashi is an Albanian surname and the name of one of the major historical tribes of northern Albania. It is a historical tribal region situated in the Highlands of Gjakova. The Gashi tribe is known to follow the Kanuni i Malësisë së Madhe, a variant of the Kanun. They were known among the mountain tribes for their wisdom.
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Geshi, Tangestan
Geshi is a village in Ahram Rural District, in the Central District of Tangestan County, Bushehr Province, Iran. At the 2006 census, its population was 210, in 60 families.
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Gas-turbine engineA gas-turbine engine, or, informally, a gas turbine, is a type of continuous flow internal combustion engine. The main parts common to all gas-turbine engines form the power-producing part and are, in the direction of flow:a rotating gas compressor a combustor a compressor-driving turbine.
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Gas holderA gas holder or gasholder, also known as a gasometer, is a large container in which natural gas or town gas is stored near atmospheric pressure at ambient temperatures. The volume of the container follows the quantity of stored gas, with pressure coming from the weight of a movable cap. Typical volumes for large gas holders are about 50,000 cubic metres (1,8
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will gas hit __ by end of May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$135K in lifetime turnover and $35K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for oil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of May?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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