Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 91% YES | 10% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
New Jersey's 4th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 9% probability that a Republican candidate will win the seat, with the remaining 91% probability distributed across Democratic outcomes. This pricing reflects the district's recent electoral history and demographic composition as traders assess the competitive landscape nearly two years before the election.
New Jersey's 4th district has voted Democratic in recent cycles, with incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer securing re-election in 2024 with approximately 52% of the vote against Republican challenger Kamlesh Patel. The district encompasses parts of Bergen and Passaic counties in the northern part of the state. Historical precedent suggests that districts trending Democratic at the presidential level tend to remain competitive but favour Democratic candidates in House races, particularly when incumbents seek re-election. The 9% Republican probability reflects the structural Democratic lean of the district rather than expectations of a significant rightward shift.
Key variables for traders to monitor include whether Gottheimer seeks another term, potential primary challenges within either party, and broader national midterm dynamics that could shift the partisan environment. Announcements regarding candidate recruitment and fundraising activity typically accelerate in 2025. Redistricting outcomes from the 2020 census remain in effect, and any subsequent legal challenges or boundary adjustments could alter the district's composition. National economic conditions and congressional approval ratings in the two years preceding the election will likely influence turnout and swing voter behaviour across the district.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NJ-04 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$401 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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