Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| E | — | |
| C | — | |
| A | — | |
| Democratic Party | 95% YES | 6% NO |
Illinois's 10th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The district, which spans parts of northern Illinois including suburban Chicago areas, has been competitive in recent cycles. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 6% probability that a non-Democrat, non-Republican candidate wins the seat, reflecting the historical rarity of third-party or independent House victories in major metropolitan districts.
The IL-10 seat has voted Republican in recent cycles, though suburban districts across the Midwest have shifted towards Democrats in the 2018 and 2020 elections. Third-party House candidates typically emerge in districts where major-party representation faces particular dissatisfaction, yet they rarely clear the structural barriers to victory. The 6% implied probability reflects both the district's partisan lean and the exceptionally low baseline rate for non-major-party House winners nationally—fewer than a handful serve in any given Congress.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements from both major parties through 2025 and into 2026, as primary outcomes and general election field composition will shape viability for any independent or third-party challenger. Local Illinois political reporting and Cook Political Report ratings will signal whether the district remains safely Republican or becomes more competitive, potentially affecting whether a non-major-party candidate gains traction. Ballot access deadlines and candidate filing periods in Illinois, typically occurring in the spring before the November election, will clarify the actual field.
The Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives is seventh in the line of succession to the office of Governor of Illinois.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IL-10 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $34K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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