Trade: NHL Calder Memorial Trophy Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Calder Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $10K
- Total Volume
- $492K
- 24h Volume
- $696
- Open Interest
- $20K
Market outcomes
| Luca Del Bel Belluz | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player 19 | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Helge Grans | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Isaac Howard | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Matthew Schaefer | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| Ivan Demidov | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Jimmy Snuggerud | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The Calder Memorial Trophy recognises the NHL's outstanding rookie during the regular season. The 2025–26 award will be presented in June 2026, following the conclusion of that season's playoffs. The market currently shows 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating either that the listed player is not widely expected to win or that minimal trading activity has established the price at an extreme level. This settlement window closes on 30 June 2026, allowing resolution shortly after the NHL's official announcement.
Historically, the Calder has been dominated by players drafted in the first two rounds who debut with significant ice time. Recent winners include Connor McDavid (2015–16), Artemi Panarin (2015–16 with Chicago), and Auston Matthews (2016–17). The award typically goes to a player aged 18–22 with at least 50 games played. The 0% probability suggests either that the specified player is unlikely to meet eligibility criteria, has limited offensive production expectations, or faces strong competition from other rookie cohorts entering the league this season.
Traders should monitor the player's actual deployment and statistics once the 2025–26 season begins in October 2025, as performance data will be the primary driver of Calder odds. The NHL's official announcement of finalists typically occurs in late May 2026, providing a clear catalyst for market repricing. Injuries, trades, or unexpected demotion to the AHL would also materially affect resolution prospects. Current order book depth remains minimal given the extreme pricing.
Wikipedia Context
-
Nele Alder-BaerensNele Alder-Baerens is a German distance runner and marathon runner. She is regarded as one of the best long-distance runners from Germany to have represented the nation at the Deaflympics. She has represented Germany at the Deaflympics in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2017 and 2022 and has won five medals in her career, including two gold medals. She is also the defendi
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nhl.com/awards. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NHL Calder Memorial Trophy Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$492K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for nhl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $696 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nhl.com/awards. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NHL Calder Memorial Trophy Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: