Trade: Pro Football: Raiders Week 1 Starting QB
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the player that takes the first snap at quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season. In the event two listed quarterbacks take the field on the first offensive play of the Las Vegas Raiders’ Week 1 game, this market will resolve in favor of the player directly receiving the snap. If neither listed quarterback directly receives the snap, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $49
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Player C | — | |
| Player E | — | |
| Fernando Mendoza | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Player A | — | |
| Kirk Cousins | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Aidan O'Connell | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Player B | — | |
Market context
The Las Vegas Raiders will name their starting quarterback for Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL season, with resolution determined by which signal-caller takes the opening snap of their first regular-season game. The market settles on 14 September 2026, providing roughly nine months for the quarterback situation to crystallise through the off-season, training camp, and preseason action.
Raiders quarterback decisions have historically reflected significant roster turnover and coaching philosophy shifts. The franchise has cycled through multiple starting options in recent seasons, with each regime prioritising different attributes—arm talent, mobility, experience—based on offensive scheme and available talent. Current Polymarket order book activity remains minimal given the distance to settlement, meaning implied probabilities will gradually form as the 2026 off-season progresses and the Raiders make concrete roster moves, draft selections, and free-agent signings.
Key catalysts include the Raiders' head coach and general manager decisions (if changes occur), their draft strategy in April 2026, free-agent quarterback availability, and preseason performance metrics. Training camp reports and exhibition games typically drive sharp movement in quarterback markets, as traders assess arm strength, decision-making, and offensive line compatibility. Any significant injury to a leading candidate would immediately reprrice the order book. The settlement window closes before Week 1 kickoff, so all resolution uncertainty must clear by early September 2026 when rosters are finalised and the starting lineup is officially announced.
Wikipedia Context
-
Pro Football Hall of FameThe Pro Football Hall of Fame is the hall of fame for professional American football, located in Canton, Ohio. Opened on September 7, 1963, the Hall of Fame enshrines exceptional figures in the sport of professional football, including players, coaches, officials, franchise owners, and front-office personnel, almost all of whom made their primary contributio
-
Pro Football Hall of Fame GameThe Pro Football Hall of Fame Game is an annual National Football League (NFL) preseason exhibition game in Canton, Ohio, held the weekend of the Pro Football Hall of Fame's induction ceremonies. The game is played at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium, part of the Hall of Fame Village and located adjacent to the Hall of Fame building. The first game was played
-
Pro Football Reference
Pro Football Reference (PFR) is an online statistics database for professional American football maintained by Sports Reference. The site provides career statistics for players, teams, and games, as well as records and NFL draft history. PFR was established independently by Doug Drinen in 2000, and became part of Sports Reference in 2007. Sports Reference al
-
Pro Football Writers of AmericaThe Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA), sometimes known as Pro Football Writers Association, is an organization that purports to be "[the] official voice of pro football writers, promoting and fighting for access to NFL personnel to best serve the public." Goals of the organization include improving access to practices and locker rooms, developing workin
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Pro Football: Raiders Week 1 Starting QB" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $49 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nfl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Pro Football: Raiders Week 1 Starting QB"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: