Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed term is included in a headline on the New York Times front page between April 27 and May 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A headline is defined as the bolded or enlarged text directly preceding each article, previewing the article’s content and typically separated from the article’s text by a black line and byline. The primary headline for each story is the headline for that story with the largest text, typically appearing in bold font and above any other headlines or text for that article.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Iran | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Israel | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Artificial Intelligence / AI | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Ceasefire | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| S&P | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Elon / Musk | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Strait of Hormuz / Strait / Hormuz | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The New York Times publishes its front page daily, with headlines selected to reflect the week's most significant news stories. Between 27 April and 3 May 2026, the publication will feature approximately 35–42 front-page headlines across its seven-day cycle, depending on story prominence and layout decisions. The market's 100% implied probability reflects the near-certainty that at least one headline matching the specified term will appear during this window, given the NYT's consistent daily publication schedule and the breadth of global news coverage.
Historical precedent suggests that NYT front-page coverage follows predictable patterns tied to the news cycle. Major categories—politics, economics, international affairs, and domestic policy—consistently generate headlines throughout any given week. The definition's specificity regarding primary headlines (largest text, bold font) narrows the resolution criteria considerably, excluding sub-headlines and secondary story treatments. Comparable markets tracking major publications show that weekly headline prediction markets typically resolve affirmatively when seeking generic or broad terms, as the volume of stories published makes near-universal coverage probable.
Traders should monitor the week's scheduled events: earnings announcements, legislative votes, international summits, and economic data releases will drive headline selection. The current order book at Polymarket reflects confidence in publication certainty rather than news unpredictability. Any market disruption—such as a major breaking news event dominating coverage—could theoretically affect headline distribution, though this would not alter the fundamental likelihood of front-page publication during a seven-day period.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (Apr 27 - May 3)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for new york times contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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