Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Micron (MU) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <$840 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| $840-$860 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $860-$880 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $880-$900 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $900-$920 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $920-$940 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $940-$960 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| $960-$980 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Micron Technology's closing price on Friday, 6 June 2025 will determine this market's resolution across multiple price brackets. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 11% implied probability for the specific bracket in question, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of that particular price level materialising at week's end.
Micron's historical volatility and sensitivity to memory chip pricing cycles provide context for evaluating such price predictions. The stock has experienced substantial swings tied to DRAM and NAND flash demand cycles, with quarterly earnings announcements and industry inventory reports typically driving 3–8% weekly moves. Comparable prediction markets on semiconductor equities show that single-week price brackets often concentrate probability mass around recent trading ranges and technical support/resistance levels, with tail brackets receiving minimal backing unless a specific catalyst is anticipated.
Traders should monitor Micron's earnings calendar and any guidance updates scheduled before the settlement window closes on 5 June. Industry reports on memory chip pricing trends, particularly from market research firms tracking spot prices, can shift positioning materially. Broader semiconductor sector momentum—influenced by AI infrastructure spending announcements or macroeconomic data affecting PC and smartphone demand—will likely influence Micron's directional bias during that week. The low current probability suggests the order book is pricing in either a move away from that bracket's range or elevated uncertainty about the week's trajectory relative to the bracket's boundaries.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Micron (MU) closes week of Jun 1 at 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mu contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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