Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 121.5 billion | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 122 billion | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 122.5 billion | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 123 billion | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| 123.5 billion | 79% YES | 22% NO |
| 124 billion | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| 124.5 billion | 46% YES | 54% NO |
MrBeast's YouTube channel will accumulate a specified threshold of total views by the end of May 2026. The channel currently operates as one of the platform's highest-performing creators, with consistent upload schedules and substantial audience engagement. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an exceptionally low view threshold relative to current accumulated views, or market participants pricing in near-certainty of continued channel growth over the settlement window.
Historical context suggests YouTube's top creators rarely experience sustained view declines. MrBeast has maintained upload consistency whilst expanding into merchandise, gaming content, and international markets. Comparable creators like SET India and Zee Entertainment have demonstrated that established channels with large subscriber bases accumulate views predictably. The current probability formation on Polymarket's order book indicates traders are pricing minimal execution risk, though the specific view target remains critical to interpreting this confidence level.
Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload frequency and content performance metrics, particularly engagement rates on recent uploads. Any extended production hiatus, platform policy changes affecting view counts, or significant algorithmic shifts could alter trajectory. Recent reporting from Variety and YouTube's own creator analytics have highlighted how top creators' view accumulation has stabilised around predictable monthly rates. The settlement window extends approximately 18 months from typical market observation points, providing substantial time for view accumulation under normal operating conditions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mrbeast contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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