Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Nemesis | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Worst Ex Ever: Season 2 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Man on Fire | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Lord of the Flies | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| Should I Marry A Murderer? | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Funny AF with Kevin Hart | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| La Brea: Season 3 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
Netflix will publish its weekly Top 10 TV shows ranking for the United States on 19 May 2026, reflecting viewership data from the preceding seven days. The market settles on whichever show ranks second in that update, with resolution contingent on the list appearing by 22 May at 23:59 ET. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 27% probability for the favoured outcome, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about which programme will occupy that specific position.
Historical Netflix Top 10 data reveals that the #2 slot typically rotates between established hits and newly released seasons. Shows like *Stranger Things*, *The Crown*, and *Bridgerton* have cycled through top positions depending on release schedules and viewer momentum. The #2 position proves more volatile than #1, as it reflects competition between shows with substantial but not dominant viewership. Recent weeks have shown that new season launches can displace incumbents rapidly, whilst established series maintain presence through consistent engagement. Understanding whether any major releases are scheduled for the week ending 18 May becomes material to assessing the probability distribution across potential outcomes.
Traders should monitor Netflix's release calendar and any surprise drops announced in early May. Industry reporting from outlets like Deadline and Variety typically covers major releases. The specific week's competitive landscape—whether a new season launches, whether international releases affect US rankings, and whether any show experiences a viewership surge—will determine positioning. The 27% implied probability reflects genuine ambiguity about which show will claim that second-place position, with the order book pricing in multiple plausible scenarios.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $613 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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