Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lord of the Flies | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Man on Fire | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Should I Marry A Murderer? | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Legends | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| The Roast of Kevin Hart | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Running Point | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Unchosen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Chestnut Man | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Netflix publishes its global Top 10 television rankings weekly, with the next update scheduled for 12 May 2026. This market resolves to whichever show Netflix officially ranks as the second-most-viewed globally during the tracking week of 5–11 May, measured by total views across all regions. The ranking reflects English-language television only and is based on Netflix's proprietary viewership data released via top10.netflix.com.
The 0% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which show will occupy the #2 position in a specific week five months hence. Historical Netflix rankings show substantial week-to-week volatility in the #2 slot, with established series like *Bridgerton*, *Stranger Things*, and *The Crown* rotating positions alongside newer releases. The second position is particularly volatile because it sits between the dominant #1 show and a cluster of competing titles; a show holding #2 one week may drop to #5 the following week depending on release schedules and audience fatigue. Without knowing which titles will have active seasons or new episodes releasing near the tracking window, traders cannot meaningfully predict the outcome today.
Catalysts for this market centre on Netflix's content calendar for May 2026 and competitor release patterns. Major season launches or finale weeks typically drive shows toward the top rankings, whilst mid-season episodes produce weaker performance. Traders should monitor Netflix's official announcement schedule and entertainment news outlets for confirmed release dates in April–May 2026, as these directly determine which shows will be in active viewership cycles during the tracking period. The current order book reflects the absence of concrete information about what content will be available that specific week.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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