Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to how much "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 12-15m | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| >18m | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| <12m | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 15-18m | 47% YES | 54% NO |
The animated comedy "The Sheep Detectives" is scheduled for theatrical release on 8 May 2026, with opening weekend box office performance to be measured across the 3-day period through 10 May. The market currently prices a 19% probability of the film exceeding $15 million domestically in that window, reflecting substantial scepticism about its commercial prospects. Settlement will use verified figures from The Numbers rather than studio estimates, with the resolution window closing on 11 May at noon.
Comparable animated releases offer context for interpreting this probability. Original animated properties without established franchises typically struggle at the box office unless backed by major studio marketing and recognisable talent. Films like "Wish" (2023) opened to $32.2 million despite Disney's resources, whilst mid-tier animated releases frequently underperform $15 million thresholds. The 19% implied probability suggests the market views "The Sheep Detectives" as a below-average performer in this category, positioning it closer to limited releases than wide theatrical pushes.
Key variables affecting opening weekend performance include the film's marketing spend and distribution breadth, which should become clearer as May approaches. Competition from other releases scheduled for the same weekend will influence audience fragmentation. Critical reception and early screening reactions, typically emerging in late April, will provide material information. Trailer performance metrics and social media engagement during the final weeks before release may signal whether the film gains unexpected momentum or faces headwinds that justify the current low probability.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.the-numbers.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading ""The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$163K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $82K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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