Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to how much "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| >15m | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| 9-11m | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| <9m | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| 11-13m | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| 13-15m | 33% YES | 67% NO |
The Francis Ford Coppola thriller "Obsession" is scheduled for theatrical release on 16 May 2026, with opening weekend box office performance (15–17 May) determining settlement. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES resolution—indicating the film will exceed a specified domestic opening weekend threshold—at 26% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism about the film's commercial prospects from active traders.
Comparable recent releases provide context for evaluating this probability. Psychological thrillers and adult-oriented dramas have faced headwinds in the post-pandemic theatrical landscape, with mid-budget films typically opening between $8–15 million domestically. Coppola's recent directorial output, whilst critically regarded, has not demonstrated consistent box office strength; his previous theatrical releases have underperformed industry expectations for established auteurs. The May release window is traditionally competitive, with studios deploying major franchises and tentpole productions during this period, which historically constrains openings for non-franchise dramas.
Traders should monitor several developments before settlement. Advance ticket sales data and preview screenings will provide early demand signals in the weeks preceding release. Critical reception from major outlets will influence word-of-mouth trajectory, particularly given the film's positioning as a prestige release. Marketing spend and distribution breadth—the number of theatres receiving prints—remain key variables; limited platform releases typically generate lower opening weekend figures than wide releases. Industry tracking reports from sources such as Deadline and Variety, published in the final two weeks before release, will offer studio projections and comparative analysis against competing releases in that weekend's slate.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.the-numbers.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading ""Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$916 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $916 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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