Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the title of the film released in April 2026 with the highest domestic gross between opening and May 30, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| Mother Mary | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Michael | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Wasteland Cop | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| You, Me & Tuscany | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Whistler | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Lorne | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie A | — | |
April 2026 will see multiple theatrical releases competing for domestic box office dominance through the end of May. The market is determining which film released in that month will achieve the highest cumulative domestic gross by 30 May, with settlement based on The Numbers' tracking data. The 99% implied probability reflects strong conviction amongst traders that at least one April release will generate sufficient revenue to be identifiable as the leader within the measurement window.
Historical precedent suggests April releases frequently underperform relative to summer tentpoles, though the month occasionally hosts significant commercial successes. Studios typically position mid-tier franchises and established IP in April slots, with performance heavily dependent on franchise recognition and critical reception. The current probability weighting suggests traders anticipate either a strong performer emerging from April's slate or confidence that measurement and data availability will proceed without complications. Polymarket's order book is pricing this outcome at near-certainty, indicating minimal perceived ambiguity around whether a clear winner will exist.
Traders should monitor studio release schedules and marketing spend announcements through March 2026, as these signal competitive intensity amongst April releases. Box office tracking reports from trade publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter will provide weekly performance data once releases begin. The resolution dependency on The Numbers' "Daily Box Office Performance" figures means traders should verify data availability and methodology consistency; the market includes a fallback resolution source if final figures remain unavailable by mid-June, though this contingency appears unlikely given standard industry reporting practices.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Highest Domestically Grossing April Film on May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$253K in lifetime turnover and $32K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $383 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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