Trade: New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between New York Red Bulls and New York City FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $598K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| New York Red Bulls | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Draw (New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC) | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| New York City FC | 32% YES | 69% NO |
Market context
The New York Red Bulls will face New York City FC in an MLS regular-season match on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 42% implied probability of a Red Bulls victory, with settlement occurring at 23:30 UTC that evening. This represents a moderately bullish lean towards NYCFC or a draw, typical for a fixture where both clubs have comparable recent form and home-ground advantage considerations remain fluid.
The Hudson River Derby carries historical weight in MLS competitive dynamics. Since NYCFC's inaugural 2015 season, the fixture has produced relatively balanced outcomes, with neither club establishing decisive dominance. Red Bulls have traditionally held slight advantages in regular-season head-to-head records, though recent seasons have seen convergence in squad quality and tactical sophistication. Current league standings and goal differential as of late April 2026 will be material to how traders reassess the 42% level; teams in playoff contention typically show different performance profiles than those mathematically eliminated.
Key variables for traders include confirmed team news by mid-May—injuries to key attacking or defensive personnel can shift match dynamics substantially—and weather conditions on match day, which affect pressing intensity and set-piece execution in the Northeast climate. MLS fixture congestion in May, including potential mid-week commitments or travel schedules, may influence squad rotation decisions. Recent form across the preceding fortnight, including results against comparable opponents, will likely drive order-book repricing closer to settlement.
Wikipedia Context
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New York Red BullsThe New York Red Bulls are an American professional soccer club based in the New York metropolitan area. The Red Bulls compete in Major League Soccer (MLS) as a member of the Eastern Conference. The club was established in October 1994 and began play in the league's inaugural season in 1996 as the New York/New Jersey MetroStars. In 2006, the team was sold to
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New York Red Bulls IIThe New York Red Bulls II is an American professional soccer team based in Montclair, New Jersey. They are the reserve team of the New York Red Bulls and play in MLS Next Pro, the third tier in the American soccer pyramid.
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New York Red Bulls Academy
The New York Red Bulls Academy is the multi-layered youth system of the New York Red Bulls. It is the first cost-free program in Major League Soccer that provides a professional soccer training environment for youth players in the New York Tri-State. The soccer programs are operated as part of a global approach to player development.
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New York Red Bulls U-23
The New York Red Bulls U-23 is an American soccer team based in Harrison, New Jersey. Founded in 2009, the team plays in USL League Two, a national amateur league at the fourth tier of the American Soccer Pyramid. It is part of the official Development Academy of Major League Soccer's New York Red Bulls.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $598K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mls contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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