Trade: South Carolina Senate Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $21K
- Total Volume
- $29K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $10K
Market outcomes
| Democrat | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Republican | 81% YES | 20% NO |
Market context
The 2026 midterm election will determine South Carolina's U.S. Senate seat, currently held by Republican Lindsey Graham. The state has voted Republican in every Senate election since 2002, with Graham winning re-election in 2020 by 10 percentage points despite a well-funded Democratic challenger. South Carolina's electorate has remained consistently conservative, though demographic shifts and turnout patterns in midterm cycles differ markedly from presidential years. The current 21% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects Democratic prospects in a state where the party has struggled to mount competitive Senate campaigns in recent cycles.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic Senate victories in South Carolina remain rare. The last Democratic winner was Fritz Hollings in 1998; since then, Republicans have dominated statewide races. Comparable 2026 midterm environments in other deep-red states show Democratic probabilities typically ranging between 15–30%, depending on candidate recruitment, national headwinds, and local economic conditions. Graham's approval ratings and potential primary challenges from the right could create openings, though South Carolina's structural Republican lean historically constrains Democratic upside.
Key catalysts include formal candidate announcements, expected in late 2025 or early 2026, and the national political environment closer to the election. Graham's legislative record and any significant primary opposition will shape the competitive landscape. Polling data released through 2026 will be critical; early surveys in 2025 will test whether Democrats can recruit a credible nominee. The order book's current pricing reflects uncertainty around candidate quality and national conditions, with traders pricing in both structural Republican advantage and potential Democratic mobilisation effects.
Wikipedia Context
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2008 South Carolina Senate electionThe 2008 South Carolina Senate election were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008. The primary elections were held on June 10 and the runoff elections were held two weeks later on June 24. The current composition of the state delegation is 27 Republicans and 19 Democrats. Senators are elected for four-year terms, all in the same year.
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2006 South Carolina electionsThe 2006 South Carolina elections took place on November 7, 2006, and included the gubernatorial election. All nine popularly elected constitutional officers were up for reelection, and all races except the Attorney General's were contested. The entire South Carolina House of Representatives, one state senator, and six state circuit solicitors were also up f
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "South Carolina Senate Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$29K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for midterms contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "South Carolina Senate Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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