Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Option A | — | |
| Option E | — | |
| Option I | — | |
| Option B | — | |
| Option F | — | |
| Option J | — | |
| Democrat | 89% YES | 12% NO |
| Option C | — | |
Maine's gubernatorial election in November 2026 will determine who succeeds the current governor. The race will feature Democratic and Republican nominees, with the possibility of independent or third-party candidates being added to the market at a later date. Resolution will be determined by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calls on election night or in the days following.
Maine has alternated between Democratic and Republican governors over recent decades, though Democrat Janet Mills won the 2022 race with 51% of the vote against Republican Paul LePage's comeback attempt. The state's political lean has shifted somewhat towards Democrats in federal elections, yet gubernatorial contests often turn on local issues and candidate-specific factors rather than national partisan tides. LePage's 2022 loss provides a recent comparable case: despite Republican strength nationally, Maine voters rejected his return. The 2026 race will likely depend on Mills' approval rating and whether Republicans can recruit a candidate with broader appeal than LePage possessed.
Key catalysts include the formal announcement of Democratic and Republican nominees, typically occurring through primary elections in June 2026. Traders should monitor Maine's economic conditions—particularly employment and cost of living—heading into the election, as these have historically influenced gubernatorial outcomes. Any significant policy decisions by Mills' administration between now and autumn 2026 could shift voter sentiment. The settlement window closes on 3 November 2026, giving traders roughly eighteen months to assess candidate viability and shifting political conditions before resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Maine Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for midterms contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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