Trade: Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both specified individuals are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $89K
- Total Volume
- $160
- 24h Volume
- $160
- Open Interest
- $160
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| December 31 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| June 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| July 31 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Market context
A direct, in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei—the Supreme Leader's son and a significant figure within Iran's power structure—remains extraordinarily unlikely given the current geopolitical landscape. Such an encounter would represent a dramatic diplomatic shift, requiring both parties to overcome decades of institutional hostility and navigate complex domestic political constraints on both sides.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting or former US president has met directly with Iran's Supreme Leader since the 1979 revolution, and meetings with senior family members are equally rare. The 1971 Nixon-Kissinger opening to China involved months of secret diplomacy through intermediaries before any public engagement. Iran's leadership has consistently rejected direct talks with Trump specifically, citing his 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent sanctions regime. The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this structural impasse—traders are pricing in near-zero likelihood of the diplomatic machinery shifting sufficiently by end-2026.
Catalysts that could move this market are narrow but identifiable. A major regional conflict resolution, significant sanctions relief negotiations, or unexpected domestic political changes in either country could theoretically create space for backchannel discussions. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates Iran's government remains focused on regional proxy activities rather than direct engagement with the Trump administration. Any credible reporting of preliminary diplomatic contact or announced summit would likely trigger immediate repricing, though current order book depth suggests traders view such scenarios as highly improbable within the settlement window.
Wikipedia Context
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North Korea–United States relationsRelations between North Korea and the United States have been historically tense and hostile. The two countries have no formal diplomatic relations. Instead, they have adopted an indirect diplomatic arrangement using neutral intermediaries. The Swedish Embassy in Pyongyang is the U.S. protecting power and provides limited consular services to U.S. citizens.
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Age and health concerns about Donald TrumpAt 79 years old, Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States, became the oldest person in American history to become president upon his second inauguration in 2025. In July 2024, five weeks after his 78th birthday, he became the oldest presidential nominee of a major party. Should he serve as president until at least August 15, 2028, he wo
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Use of X by Donald TrumpDonald Trump's use of social media attracted worldwide attention since he joined Twitter in March 2009. Over nearly twelve years, Trump tweeted around 57,000 times, including about 8,000 times during the 2016 election campaign and over 25,000 times during his first presidency. The White House said the tweets should be considered official statements. When Twi
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TrumpetThe trumpet is a brass instrument. The most common type of trumpet is a transposing instrument in B♭, with pitches sounding a whole step lower than written. The trumpet family includes instruments ranging from the piccolo trumpet, with the highest register in the brass family, to the bass trumpet, pitched one octave below the standard B♭ or C trumpet.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$160 in lifetime turnover and $89K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for middle east contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $160 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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