Meta

Trade: Meta (META) closes above ___ on May 13?

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) on May 13 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$42K
Total Volume
$5K
24h Volume
$5K
Open Interest
$4K
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

$580 96% YES5% NO
$590 82% YES18% NO
$600 49% YES52% NO
$610 17% YES84% NO
$620 4% YES96% NO

Market context

Meta Platforms will close its regular trading session on 13 May 2026, and this market resolves based on whether the official closing price exceeds a specified threshold. The 96% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where the spread between bid and ask suggests strong conviction amongst traders that Meta will trade above the strike price on that date. With nearly two years until settlement, the probability incorporates expectations of Meta's fundamental trajectory and broader equity market conditions through that window.

Historical precedent suggests that technology stocks with Meta's market capitalisation and liquidity rarely fail to close above modest price targets set two years in advance, particularly when the implied probability sits this high. The 4% tail risk typically reflects tail scenarios: severe market dislocations, company-specific crises, or unforeseen regulatory action that would fundamentally impair valuation. Meta's historical volatility and the extended timeframe mean that even significant drawdowns from current levels would need to persist through May 2026 to trigger a "No" resolution.

Traders monitoring this position should track Meta's quarterly earnings announcements, artificial intelligence product developments (particularly within its Llama ecosystem and advertising technology), and regulatory developments around data privacy and competition. Macroeconomic shifts affecting advertising spend, changes to Meta's capital allocation strategy, and shifts in the competitive landscape with other technology firms represent material catalysts. The settlement window's specificity to a single closing price means intraday volatility on 13 May itself carries minimal consequence; only the official close matters for resolution.

Wikipedia Context

  • Metaphysics
    Metaphysics

    Metaphysics is the branch of philosophy that examines the basic structure of reality. It is traditionally seen as the study of mind-independent features of the world, but some theorists view it as an inquiry into the conceptual framework of human understanding. Some philosophers, including Aristotle, designate metaphysics as the first philosophy to suggest t

  • Metá Metá
    Metá Metá

    Metá Metá is a Brazilian jazz band from São Paulo created in 2008 and formed by the trio Juçara Marçal (vocals), Kiko Dinucci (guitar) and Thiago França (saxophone).

  • Metadata
    Metadata

    Metadata is data that defines and describes the characteristics of other data. It often helps to describe, explain, locate, or otherwise make data easier to retrieve, use, or manage. For example, the title, author, and publication date of a book are metadata about the book. But, while a data asset is finite, its metadata is infinite.

  • Metamaterial
    Metamaterial

    A metamaterial is an engineered material whose properties arise not from the chemical composition of its base substances, but from their deliberately designed internal structure. These properties are often rare or absent in naturally occurring materials. Metamaterials are typically fashioned from multiple materials, such as metals and plastics, and arranged

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Meta (META) closes above ___ on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$5K in lifetime turnover and $42K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for meta contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Meta (META) closes above ___ on May 13?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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