Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? | 18% YES | 83% NO |
Zohran Mamdani, a New York City Council member, has proposed raising the city's minimum wage to $30 per hour by 2030 as part of his 2025 mayoral campaign. This market requires two conditions: Mamdani must win the mayoral election, and the city must enact legislation establishing a $30 minimum wage (effective by end-2030) before the close of 2026. The 18% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the compounding difficulty of both events occurring within the compressed timeframe.
New York City's minimum wage currently stands at $15 per hour, with scheduled increases to $17.96 by 2026 under existing policy. Historical precedent suggests rapid wage increases face implementation delays; when the city raised its minimum wage from $7.25 to $15 between 2015 and 2019, the process took four years and involved phased implementation. A $30 target would represent a doubling within four years—substantially more aggressive than prior municipal action. Other jurisdictions pursuing aggressive minimum wage increases, including San Francisco and California statewide, have typically implemented them over multi-year periods rather than immediately.
Key catalysts include the November 2025 mayoral election results and any legislative proposals Mamdani advances if elected. The market's resolution hinges on whether a newly elected Mamdani administration could draft, negotiate, and pass minimum wage legislation within roughly twelve months of taking office in January 2026. City Council approval and potential legal challenges would compress an already tight timeline. Traders should monitor campaign momentum, polling data, and statements from other mayoral candidates regarding wage policy.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mamdani contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 18%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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