Trade: Malta Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $44K
- Total Volume
- $800
- 24h Volume
- $800
- Open Interest
- $257
Market outcomes
| Labour Party 25%+ | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Labour Party 20-25% | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Labour Party 15-20% | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Labour Party 10-15% | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Labour Party 5-10% | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Labour Party <5% | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Other | 9% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
Malta will hold general elections on 30 May 2026, with this market measuring the percentage-point gap between the winning party and runner-up in terms of valid votes cast. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a very low likelihood of an extremely narrow victory—typically defined as margins under 2 percentage points. This pricing indicates confidence in a decisive outcome rather than a closely contested result.
Malta's two-party system, dominated by the Nationalist Party and Labour Party, has historically produced varied margins. The 2022 election saw Labour win by approximately 8 percentage points, whilst the 2017 election resulted in a margin of roughly 3.6 points. These precedents establish that single-digit margins are plausible but not the base case. The current 1% probability on the tightest bracket suggests the market is pricing in structural factors—polling trends, demographic shifts, or campaign momentum—that point toward a more comfortable winning margin rather than a photo-finish scenario.
Traders monitoring this market should track opinion polling releases, which typically intensify in the months preceding the election, and any significant political developments affecting either major party's standing. Changes to electoral law or voter registration figures could shift expectations about turnout patterns and margin distributions. The settlement window closing on 30 May 2026 means the final order book positioning will reflect all pre-election information available to traders.
Wikipedia Context
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2020 Malian parliamentary electionParliamentary elections were held in Mali on 29 March 2020, with a second round on 19 April. They were initially scheduled to be held on 25 November and 16 December 2018, but were moved to April 2019 and then to June 2019, before being postponed until 2020 by the Council of Ministers. The elections were marred by violence in the north and center of the count
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2007 Malian parliamentary electionParliamentary elections were held in Mali on 1 July 2007, with a second round on 22 July. In the first round, there were about 1,400 candidates for 147 seats in the National Assembly.
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1992 Malian parliamentary election
Parliamentary elections were held in Mali on 23 February 1992 and 8 March 1992, the first after the March 1991 military coup that overthrew President Moussa Traoré. Following the coup, the Comité Transitoire de Salut du Peuple (CTSP) was created to manage the democratic transition. This body established a transitional government headed by Amadou Toumani Tour
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2013 Malian parliamentary election
Parliamentary elections were held in Mali on 24 November 2013. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta's party, Rally for Mali, won 66 of the 147 seats in the National Assembly, with its allies winning an additional 49 seats, giving it a substantial majority. The Union for the Republic and Democracy, led by Soumaïla Cissé, won 17 seats, becoming the Opposition.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Malta Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$800 in lifetime turnover and $44K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for malta contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $800 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Malta Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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