Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the region or country of the esports team winning 1st place in the Mid-Season Invitational 2026 (MSI 2026), currently scheduled for June 26 - July 12, 2026. If the winner of MSI 2026 is not determined by July 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the LoL Esports website (https://lolesports.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/Mid-Season_Invitational/2026) may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| LCK (South Korea) | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| LPL (China) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| LEC (Europe / EMEA) | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| LCP (Asia-Pacific) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| LCS (North America) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| CBLOL (Brazil) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Will a team from another region win MSI 2026? | — | |
The Mid-Season Invitational 2026 will determine which region produces the tournament champion, with the event scheduled for 26 June through 12 July 2026. The winning region's identity hinges on which team claims first place, with settlement based on official League of Legends Esports records. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 64% implied probability for a specific outcome, suggesting market participants assess one region as substantially favoured relative to others competing in the tournament.
Historical MSI results show regional dominance has shifted across cycles. China's LPL and South Korea's LCK have alternated as primary contenders, whilst Europe's LEC and North America's LCS have occasionally mounted competitive showings. The 2025 MSI result and subsequent spring split performances will provide crucial calibration for assessing which region enters the 2026 event with momentum and roster strength. Teams' mid-season form, patch adaptation, and international scrim results typically correlate with tournament outcomes, making spring split standings a meaningful predictor.
Traders should monitor roster announcements and spring split standings across all regions through May 2026, as these directly influence team quality entering the tournament. Patch changes deployed before MSI will affect champion viability and regional meta strengths—regions with stronger adaptation historically capitalise on meta shifts. Injury announcements or unexpected roster changes in the weeks before the tournament could shift regional competitiveness. The tournament schedule itself (26 June–12 July) provides a fixed resolution window, with the market settling by 31 July 2026 ET based on official LoL Esports records or Liquipedia consensus reporting.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MSI 2026 Winning Region" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$216K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for lol contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $91 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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