Trade: Marriott Total Rooms above ___ in Q1?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marriott's total rooms at the end of the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If Marriott's official earnings materials for Q1 2026 are released and total rooms are not included, this market will resolve to "No". If Marriott does not release quarterly earnings materials for Q1 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- —
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| 1.80 million | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1.78 million | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1.82 million | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Marriott International will report its total room count at the end of Q1 2026 (31 March 2026) in official earnings materials due by early May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects 0% implied probability that this figure will exceed a specified threshold, suggesting traders are pricing in either confidence that growth will fall short or substantial uncertainty about the metric's disclosure itself.
Marriott's room portfolio has expanded consistently through development pipelines and acquisitions, with the company reporting approximately 1.6 million rooms globally as of late 2024. Historical quarterly growth typically ranges between 20,000 and 50,000 net rooms, though this varies with seasonal development cycles and conversion activity. The zero probability reading is notable given Marriott's track record of steady expansion, indicating the threshold in question may be set considerably above realistic near-term projections or that market participants are pricing in execution risk.
Traders should monitor Marriott's earnings announcement schedule, expected in late April or early May 2026, alongside any interim development updates the company provides. Recent trading activity in Marriott equity and debt markets may signal investor sentiment on pipeline progress. The resolution hinges entirely on official earnings disclosure—if Marriott omits the total rooms metric from Q1 2026 materials, the market resolves to "No" regardless of actual performance. Settlement occurs 6 May 2026, creating a compressed window between earnings release and final resolution.
Wikipedia Context
-
Marriott Hotels & Resorts
Marriott Hotels & Resorts is Marriott International's brand of full-service hotels and resorts based in Bethesda, Maryland. As of June 30, 2020, there were 582 hotels and resorts with 205,053 rooms operating under the brand, in addition to 160 hotels with 47,765 rooms planned for development.
-
2003 Marriott Hotel bombingA suicide bomber detonated a car bomb outside the lobby of the JW Marriott Jakarta hotel on 5 August 2003, killing 12 people and injuring 150. Those killed included 11 Indonesians and one Dutch national. The hotel was viewed as a Western symbol, and had been used by the United States embassy for various events. The hotel was closed for five weeks and reopene
-
Marriott InternationalMarriott International, Inc. is an American multinational company that operates, franchises, and licenses lodging brands that include hotel, residential, and timeshare properties. The company owns over 37 hotel and timeshare brands, with 9,000 locations and 1,597,380 rooms across its network. Headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, the company is the successor
-
Minneapolis Marriott City Center HotelThe Minneapolis Marriott City Center is a 379-ft tall 32 floor skyscraper in Minneapolis, Minnesota containing 585 hotel rooms. The building has a triangular shape, with the westernmost corner a knife's edge. It is the tallest hotel on the list of tallest buildings in Minneapolis.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Marriott Total Rooms above ___ in Q1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kpis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Marriott Total Rooms above ___ in Q1?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: