Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 5.0% | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ↑ 5.25% | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ 4.75% | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↓ 2.0% | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| ↓ 1.25% | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| ↓ 1.75% | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| ↓ 0.5% | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| ↓ 0% | 6% YES | 94% NO |
The Federal Reserve's policy rate currently sits within a target range of 4.25–4.50%, following cuts that began in September 2024. The question centres on whether the Fed will raise rates to a specified higher level before the end of 2026. The 4% probability reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders view this scenario as unlikely, though the settlement window extends across two full years of potential FOMC decisions and any emergency actions the Committee might take outside regular meetings.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance for near-term rate hikes from current levels. The Fed raised rates aggressively from 2022 to mid-2023, moving from near-zero to above 5%, but the subsequent easing cycle began as inflation moderated. Current market pricing reflects expectations that inflation will remain closer to target, reducing pressure for further tightening. The 4% probability indicates traders assign meaningful weight to scenarios where inflation re-accelerates or labour market resilience forces the Fed's hand, but view these outcomes as distinctly minority cases.
Traders should monitor upcoming inflation data, employment reports, and Fed communications closely. The FOMC meets eight times annually on a published schedule, with the next major policy decision points in early 2025. Recent commentary from Fed officials has emphasised data-dependency rather than a predetermined path, meaning unexpected CPI or PCE readings could shift market expectations substantially. Any significant geopolitical disruption or financial stability concerns could also trigger emergency action outside the regular calendar.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.4M in lifetime turnover and $114K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for jerome powell contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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