Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| 8 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 12 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5 | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| 9 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 13 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns whether Israel will conduct offensive strikes beyond its own territory and the Palestinian territories during 2026, spanning multiple sovereign nations. The resolution excludes operations within Israel's December 2025 borders, the West Bank, and Gaza, focusing instead on cross-border military action against targets in other countries' airspace or territory.
Historical precedent suggests the baseline for such activity remains elevated. Israel has conducted strikes in Syria regularly since 2011, targeting Iranian and Hezbollah positions, whilst also striking targets in Iraq and Yemen. The 2024 escalation following October 2023 expanded operational scope, with confirmed strikes in Lebanon and Iran itself. However, the current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in de-escalation by year-end or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price. The market's structure—requiring strikes across multiple distinct countries rather than repeated operations in one location—sets a higher threshold than historical patterns of concentrated regional activity.
Traders should monitor ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and Lebanon, particularly any agreements that might constrain Israeli operations. Regional developments involving Iran's nuclear programme, Hezbollah's military posture, and Houthi activity in the Red Sea represent primary catalysts. The incoming U.S. administration's Middle East policy stance will influence operational constraints. Any major escalation involving Iranian retaliation or new militant group provocations could rapidly shift probability, whilst sustained diplomatic progress would reinforce the current low reading.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6.6M in lifetime turnover and $351K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for israel contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $59K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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