Trade: US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before U.S. President Donald Trump visits China. This market will resolve to “No” if U.S. President Donald Trump visits China before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran. If there is neither a qualifying ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran nor a qualifying visit of Trump to China by June 30, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
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- Total Volume
- $156K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $49K
Market outcomes
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
The market hinges on the sequencing of two major diplomatic events: whether the United States and Iran reach an official ceasefire agreement before Donald Trump makes a state visit to China. The resolution criteria require a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement between Washington and Tehran. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extremely high confidence in a near-term ceasefire or substantial uncertainty being priced out by illiquidity at the extremes. With the settlement window extending to June 2026, traders are assessing the likelihood of formalised de-escalation within an 18-month timeframe.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action represented the closest recent framework for US-Iran agreement, though it involved nuclear rather than military dimensions. The Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal from that accord and subsequent maximum pressure campaign established a pattern of escalation rather than negotiation. Current US-Iran tensions centre on proxy conflicts in the Middle East, drone incidents, and nuclear programme concerns—issues that have resisted diplomatic resolution for decades.
Traders should monitor Trump's China visit scheduling, which remains unannounced but could occur within the first half of 2026. Catalysts include any formal ceasefire negotiations, statements from Iranian leadership regarding direct talks, and developments in regional proxy conflicts, particularly in Iraq and Syria. Recent reporting from Reuters and other outlets indicates no active ceasefire negotiations as of early 2025, suggesting the market's extreme probability may reflect settlement ambiguity rather than genuine confidence in imminent agreement.
Wikipedia Context
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2026 Iran war
Since 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel have been engaged in a war with Iran and its regional allies. The conflict began when the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting military and government sites and assassinating several Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The surprise attacks were launched during negotiat
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2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations
On April 12, 2025, Iran and the United States began a series of negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement, following a letter from US president Donald Trump to Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Trump set a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach an agreement. After the deadline passed without an agreement, Israel launched numerous strikes against
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Iran–United States relationsRelations between Iran and the United States in modern-day are unsettled and have a troubled history. They began in the mid-to-late 19th century, when Iran was known to the Western world as Qajar Persia. Persia was very wary of British and Russian colonial interests during the Great Game. By contrast, the United States was seen as a more trustworthy foreign
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Red Sea crisisThe Red Sea crisis is an ongoing armed conflict and maritime crisis instigated by the Houthis, an armed group in Yemen. The Houthis began launching missiles and armed drones at Israel in response to the Gaza war, and have seized or attacked dozens of merchant and naval vessels travelling through the Red Sea which they claimed are linked to Israel. These acti
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$156K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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