Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any naturalized US citizen is denaturalized by the United States government by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Denaturalization refers to the legal process through which a naturalized citizen’s US citizenship is revoked by the federal government. An announcement from relevant federal government sources, including but not limited to US Attorney’s Offices, relevant US district courts, the Department of Justice, or the Department of Homeland Security, within this market’s timeframe that any naturalized citizen has been or definitively will be denaturalized will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Trump denaturalize any citizen by June 30? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Trump administration has signalled heightened scrutiny of naturalisation records, with immigration enforcement officials publicly discussing denaturalisation as a potential enforcement tool. Denaturalisation is a rare legal action historically reserved for cases involving fraud in the naturalisation application process, such as concealed criminal records or misrepresented eligibility. The federal government possesses statutory authority under 8 U.S.C. § 1451 to initiate denaturalisation proceedings through US Attorneys' Offices, though successful cases have been infrequent—averaging fewer than ten annually over the past two decades.
The current order book on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability, suggesting traders assess denaturalisation as virtually certain within the 18-month window through June 2026. This probability formation likely incorporates recent policy statements from Department of Homeland Security and Department of Justice officials indicating expanded investigation into naturalisation fraud. The administration has announced plans to review historical naturalisation cases, particularly those involving applicants with prior criminal convictions or immigration violations.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcements from US Attorneys' Offices regarding filed denaturalisation complaints, which would constitute the formal trigger for resolution. Court filings in relevant US district courts would provide early signals of proceedings. The timeline remains substantial—18 months allows for multiple enforcement actions—and the administration's stated commitment to immigration enforcement suggests active pursuit of cases meeting denaturalisation criteria. Any public announcement of a denaturalisation action by relevant federal authorities would settle this market affirmatively.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Trump denaturalize any citizen by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$20K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for immigration contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: