Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mitchell Jacob | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Candidate G | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Jeff Pixley | 76% YES | 25% NO |
Oklahoma's 4th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 16 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the House seat. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 27% probability that a Democratic nominee will be announced by the November 2026 deadline, with the market pricing in substantial uncertainty around whether the party will field a competitive candidate in this Republican-leaning district.
OK-04 has voted solidly Republican in recent cycles, with the seat held by Republican Tom Cole since 2003. Democratic primary participation in non-competitive districts typically declines sharply, and the party's resource allocation tends to favour districts where it holds better prospects. Historical precedent suggests that in safely Republican seats, Democratic nominations sometimes go uncontested or attract only token challengers, which would resolve this market to "Other" rather than a specific nominee. The current 27% probability reflects the base rate of Democratic nomination activity in unfavourable territory, balanced against the possibility that local or national party dynamics could prompt a more serious candidacy.
Traders should monitor Democratic National Committee statements regarding 2026 recruitment strategy and any announcements from prospective candidates in Oklahoma. The primary date of 16 June 2026 approaches relatively soon in the election cycle, meaning candidate declarations typically emerge within the next 12–18 months. Changes to the district's demographics or unexpected shifts in Republican representation could alter incentives for Democratic participation, though such developments remain speculative at present.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "OK-04 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for house primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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