Trade: American Hockey League: Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the American Hockey League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of American Hockey League per the rules of American Hockey League (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8
- Total Volume
- $10K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $25
Market outcomes
| Abbotsford Canucks | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bakersfield Condors | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Belleville Senators | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bridgeport Islanders | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Calgary Wranglers | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Charlotte Checkers | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Chicago Wolves | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Cleveland Monsters | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Market context
The American Hockey League championship will be determined through the 2025–26 season, culminating in the Calder Cup Finals scheduled to conclude by late June 2026. The AHL operates as the primary professional minor league in North America, with 32 teams competing across two conferences. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal trading activity on this particular contract or a structural absence of backing, typical for markets on secondary sporting competitions where retail participation remains sparse.
Historical context suggests AHL championship markets attract limited liquidity compared to major league sports. The league's decentralised media coverage and smaller betting pools mean probability formation often depends on thin order books, where even modest positions can skew implied odds toward extremes. Previous seasons have seen Calder Cup winners emerge from various franchises—the Hershey Bears, Lehigh Valley Phantoms, and others—without clear dominance, indicating competitive balance that should theoretically support non-zero probabilities across multiple teams.
Traders monitoring this market should track roster movements and playoff positioning as the 2025–26 season progresses, particularly injury reports affecting contending teams and any mid-season trades that reshape competitive dynamics. The settlement window closes 30 June 2026, providing a defined endpoint. Key catalysts include the regular season's conclusion in April 2026 and the subsequent playoff bracket announcement, which will clarify each team's elimination status and championship viability. Current depth on the order book will likely remain shallow until late-season developments crystallise genuine contention.
Wikipedia Context
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American Hockey LeagueThe American Hockey League (AHL) is a professional ice hockey league in North America that serves as the primary developmental league of the National Hockey League (NHL). The league comprises 32 teams, with 26 in the United States and 6 in Canada.
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American Hockey Association (1926–1942)
The American Hockey Association (AHA) was a minor professional hockey league that operated between 1926 and 1942. It had previously operated as the Central Hockey League, and before that as part of the United States Amateur Hockey Association. The AHA was the first professional hockey league to field teams in the Southern United States. The founding presiden
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American Hockey Coaches Association
The American Hockey Coaches Association was formed in 1947 in Boston. The founding members coached college ice hockey but membership has grown to include coaches at every level of the sport from youth hockey to professional ice hockey, although the organization maintains a focus on the collegiate game.
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American Hockey Association (1992–93)
The American Hockey Association (AHA) was a semi-professional ice hockey league that operated for the 1992–93 season. The league operated independently, and was not affiliated with any higher league. The league operated with central ownership of teams, presided over by Charlie Hodgins. The league scheduled exhibition games with the Russian Red Army team, and
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "American Hockey League: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$10K in lifetime turnover and $8 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hockey contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "American Hockey League: Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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