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Trade: Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?

96% YES 4% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Cisco Systems is estimated to release earnings on May 13, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Cisco Systems’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.04 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cisco Systems reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $1.04 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Cisco Systems releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$2K
Total Volume
$3K
24h Volume
$127
Open Interest
$2K
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Market outcomes

Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? 96% YES5% NO

Market context

Cisco Systems will report quarterly earnings on 13 May 2026, with the Street consensus forecasting non-GAAP EPS of $1.04. This market resolves "Yes" if the company reports earnings per share above that threshold. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 97% implied probability of a beat, suggesting traders assess a low likelihood of Cisco missing consensus estimates.

Cisco has historically beaten earnings expectations with regularity, though the consistency varies by cycle. Over the past eight quarters, the company has exceeded consensus EPS estimates in the majority of reporting periods, though misses do occur during periods of macroeconomic weakness or inventory corrections in networking equipment. The 97% probability reflects confidence in Cisco's ability to clear a relatively modest hurdle, though this leaves limited margin for disappointment given the high bar already priced in.

Key catalysts ahead include any guidance revisions or pre-announcement warnings from Cisco management, which would signal confidence or concern before the formal earnings release. Broader technology sector momentum and enterprise IT spending trends will influence actual results, particularly given Cisco's exposure to data centre and security infrastructure investments. Recent commentary on AI-driven infrastructure spending and network modernisation cycles will shape whether the company can sustain margin performance alongside revenue growth. Any material changes to customer demand signals or supply chain conditions in the weeks preceding 13 May could shift trader positioning significantly.

Wikipedia Context

  • Cisco
    Cisco

    Cisco Systems, Inc., doing business as Cisco, is an American multinational technology conglomerate corporation that develops, manufactures, and sells hardware, software, telecommunications equipment and other high-technology services and products focused on networking, cyber security and AI. Cisco specializes in specific tech markets, such as the Internet of

  • Cisco Systems VPN Client
    Cisco Systems VPN Client

    Cisco Systems VPN Client is a software application for connecting to virtual private networks based on Internet Key Exchange version 1.

  • Apple litigation

    The multinational technology corporation Apple Inc. has been a participant in various legal proceedings and claims since it began operation and, like its competitors and peers, engages in litigation in its normal course of business for a variety of reasons. In particular, Apple is known for and promotes itself as actively and aggressively enforcing its in

  • List of acquisitions by Cisco
    List of acquisitions by Cisco

    Cisco Systems, Inc., commonly known as Cisco, is an American computer networking company. Cisco made its first acquisition in 1993, which was followed by a series of further acquisitions.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 96% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $104 if YES resolves true — a 4% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$3K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hide from new contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $127 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 96%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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